15 September 2025

GBP 

This week marks a big week, with two major Central Bank meetings scheduled; the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England’s (BoE) sixth MPC meeting of 2025 on Thursday. Markets widely expect the BoE to hold interest rates at 4%, as the central bank continues to monitor sticky inflation. A rate cut before the end of the year is currently priced in at 37%, with only 2 further meetings remaining after this week.

Labour and inflation figures due this week (employment data due for release Tuesday, and CPI on Wednesday) will likely shape the tone of Thursday’s meeting outcome, or at least the sentiment from commentators in the aftermath. Average earnings are expected to pick-up slightly on Tuesday to 4.7% from 4.6%, and CPI is expected to remain at 3.8% year-on-year (almost double the BoE’s 2% target), with increases in food and accommodation prices exerting upward pressure.

EUR

This week, ECB president Lagarde is due to speak at two high-profile events. The first is today (Monday), at the Montaigne Institute’s 25th anniversary event, in Paris. The second is the ECB’s 10^th Annual Research Conference, which takes place on Wednesday.

While the Montaigne Institute’s anniversary is a non-monetary policy event, markets will be watching for any remarks relating to growth challenges and the President’s broader economic vision for the eurozone.

Wednesday’s speech could be more impactful on markets, as the conference is a key platform for signalling long-term policy direction, with analysts looking for cues on the ECB’s next move following its recent decision to hold rates steady at 2.00%.

While most economic releases across the eurozone this week are expected to have a relatively low impact on markets, one of note is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (released Tuesday), which is expected to show a slowdown from last month's reading of 34.7 to 26.4 this month, reflecting growing caution among investors.

USD

As noted earlier, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on Wednesday. It’s a critical meeting for markets as it’s widely expected that a vote to cut interest rates by 25 basis points will be passed. This would be the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025.

It is also expected that a split vote will occur, with probable new Governor Stephen Miran in favour of a 50-basis point cut, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid in favour of a hold.

Markets have priced in 70 basis points of cuts for the remainder of 2025.

Read our deep-dive into the potential impacts of Wednesday’s meeting here: All eyes on the Fed – Will they cut rates, and by how much? | Moneycorp

There are two further key economic releases this week. Retail sales are expected to slow to 0.2% this month, while core retail sales are forecast to rise to 0.4%.

Additionally, unemployment claims data will be released on Thursday and is expected to reduce to 245K, from the previous reading of 263K.

Author 

Views expressed in this commentary are those of the author, and may differ from your appointed Moneycorp representative. This commentary does not constitute financial advice. All rates are sourced from Bloomberg and forecasts are taken from Forex Factory.