Daily Market Pulse
USD Softens on Dovish Powell Remarks; EUR/USD and GBP/USD Continue Upward Momentum
3 minute readAfter gains of 0.23% ahead of the North American session yesterday, the USD closed 0.15% lower following Powell’s panel commentary, which leaned dovish. Speaking alongside ECB President Lagarde and BCB President Neto, Powell kept September policy easing odds intact, stating, “inflation now shows signs of resuming its disinflationary trend.” He also noted that an unexpected weakening of the labor market could prompt the Fed into action. Before the panel discussion, US JOLTS data unexpectedly rose from three-year lows last month. Labor market churn could be seen in the increases in both hiring and layoffs. There was also a notable divergence between public and private job openings in the report.
The USD enters today’s North American session roughly flat compared to yesterday’s close. ADP employment data was largely consistent with a cooling labor market, with moderate job gains (150k vs. 165k forecast) and cooling wage growth. Initial and continuing jobless claims data edged higher than both forecasts and prior readings. The USD has been trading softer after this morning’s labor market data. Several other readings are released this morning, while investors will be keen to see the latest Fed meeting minutes released at 2 PM.
EUR/USD rose 0.1% yesterday and is headed for its fifth straight daily advance, trading 0.25% higher today and nearly 1% higher than this time last week. ECB President Lagarde largely repeated recent policy commentary, adding that the ECB is attentive to yields but would refrain from any comment on the looming French elections. ECB member Centeno said that officials will likely ease policy a few more times this year.
GBP/USD gained 0.3% yesterday and is up another 0.3% today, trading about 0.7% higher than this time last week. Services and Composite PMI data this morning came in above expectations, highlighting continued firmness in the services sector. Regarding the election, polls have moved little over the course of the campaign, and betting markets see a large Labour majority priced in. The vote is tomorrow, with exit polls expected to start being released around 10 PM (domestic time).
USD/CAD fell over 0.4% yesterday and 0.15% lower today, trading about 0.3% lower than this time last week. Yesterday’s Manufacturing PMI data was unchanged from the prior month reading, remaining in contractionary territory. International trade data released this morning missed estimates, including a downward revision to the prior reading, marking the third straight monthly decline in the series. Employment data is released Friday.